So what if the Madhya Pradesh assembly election results repeated themselves in six months, when the Lok Sabha battle is fought? Who among the Congress superstars in the big central Indian state will retain his parliamentary seat?
Let’s start with Kamal Nath, the longest-serving Congress MP in the current Lok Sabha, elected from Chhindwara since 1980. Nath, who is minister for urban development and for parliamentary affairs, had won in 2009 by 121,220 votes. As per the assembly elections of 2013, if the votes of the seven assembly segments that combine to form Chhindwara Lok Sabha constituency are tabulated, the BJP is ahead by 120,859 votes. This is lower than Nath’s winning margin in 2009 – but by only 361 votes! That’s how perilously placed Nath is.
Jyotidaritya Scindia, MP from Guna, is in slightly better health. He had won in 2009 by 80,360 votes. Going by the 2013 verdict, the Congress still leads in the assembly segments that make up Guna, but by 42,106 votes. As such, Scindia will still win, but by less than half the number of votes he was ahead by in 2009.
Kantilal Bhuria, the Congress’ best-known tribal face in Madhya Pradesh and a four-time MP, had won from Ratlam by 57,668 votes in 2009. If one were to go by the assembly results, he would lose in 2014 by 135,763 votes. An almost identical loser would be Meenakshi Natarajan, a trusted acolyte of Rahul Gandhi and heavily promoted as the new face of the Congress. In 2009, Natarajan had won from Mandsaur by 30,819 votes. In 2014 – if the December 8 assembly poll verdict were to persist – she should lose by 135,818 votes. At the age of 40, she would then become the youngest has-been in Indian politics.
Till next time, meow!